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tom@equitiesresearch.com

April 20,2012

7:08am est.

(note: SEC filing public 6:00am)



Equities Research

Friday Morning Call:

Sell CMG $430

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG)


Operational Cash Flow per share (OPS) declined 57% year over year


Equities Research has been bullish on CMG since the IPO in 2006.This morning after examining the FY2012 10Q I saw a disturbing number,                                 

  $0.93 OPS (Q1 2012) vs. $2.17 (Q1 2011).OPS DECLINED 57%

CMG reported $29 million in Operational Cash flow down from $68 million a year ago. CMG had 22 of 23 quarters of year over year OPS growth.                               

  (Q1 '09 to Q1 '10, OPS fell 3%)


OPS Spread:

This quarter also marked the first time Earnings Per share was greater than OPS.

1Q 2011 CMG had a positive $1.47 OPS spread

1Q 2012 CMG had a negative $1.04 OPS Spread

This is the first time in 29 quarters the OPS Spread is negative

Cash Cycle Spread

1Q 2011 CMG had a cash cycle of 1.6X

1Q 2012 CMG had a cash cycle of 0.46X

This is the first time in 29 quarters that the cash cycle is below 1.0X

OPS trailing 3 months

4Q 2010- 1Q 2011 $92 million to $68 million (-26%)

4Q 2011- 1Q 2012 $120 million to $29 million (-75%)

OPS Multiple Trailing Twelve Month

TTM 1Q 2011 $9.36 OPS X 31

TTM 1Q 2012 $11.74 OPS X 36


CMG will remain a 1 (highest) ranking on Stockdiagnostics. (although OPS continues to be positive and showed TTM year over year growth of 25%, today's first quarter decline has signaled a Sell Rating by Equities Research).


Update: April 21,2012 On the conference call yesterday there was not any reference by the company nor any questions by all the analyst on the call regarding the cash flow statement.


CMG posts at Equities Research earlier this year

March 28.2012 BULLISH
Priceline.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:PCLN) traded at an all-time (13 year) high yesterday before closing @ $728.85. 
Stockdiagnostics upgraded PCLN @ $23.48 on May 13, 2004, after the company reported 1st quarter financials for the period ending March 31, 2004. 
In less than eight years the shares have a cumulative return of 3,004% vs 29% for the S&P500 index during this same time frame.
click to PCLN Stockdiagnostics OPS chart
click to PCLN GFNN news story

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) traded at an all-time high yesterday before closing @ $421.37. Stockdiagnostics upgraded CMG @ $50.78 on April 27, 2006, after the company reported 1st quarter financials for the period ending March 31,2006. 
Since the upgrade shares have had a cumulative return of 730% vs. 8% for the Standard & Poor 500 Index over that same period.
click to CMG GFNN news story
click to CMG Stockdiagnostics OPS Chart

 

01/05/2012 BULLISH

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) closed yesterday at an all-time high of $348.75. CMG was one of the top performing stocks in 2011, trading up 58% on the year.

Stockdiagnostics upgraded CMG to a "1" ranking on April 27, 2006,  after the company reported 1st quarter financials for the period ending March 31, 2006. Since being ranked a "1", CMG has had a cumulative return of 587% vs. the Standard & Poor 500 Index, which is 2% lower over that same period. CMG shares have annualized 41% per year.

click to CMG GFNN news story

click to CMG Stockdiagnostics OPS Chart